What in the world are “counterfactuals?”
Written by Rev. Dr. Scott Paczkowski
“Finally, brothers and sisters, whatever is true, whatever is honorable, whatever is just, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is commendable, if there is any excellence, if there is anything worthy of praise, think about these things. ”
I came across counterfactuals in an article by Erman Misirisoy, Ph.D., entitled, “Don’t Be Seduced by Counterfactuals.” Counterfactuals are what happens when you begin playing “what-if” scenarios in your thoughts. Misirisoy observes, “Research is now starting to show just how seductive counterfactuals are and how much they can hurt you.” When you wonder how your life would be different, i.e., better, if we had followed the choice(s) not taken in our life, dissatisfaction with the present occurs.
Misirisoy offers a scientific experiment that exemplifies counterfactuals. The investigation is the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). The experiment places groups of people in front of balloons. They have a button that, with each push, puts air inside—the one who pushes the button the most wins. The catch is each research subject knows the balloons are rigged to pop at different times. The scholars do not care who wins or how much each one agonizes over each button push. The real issue that concerns the scholars is how many participants whose balloons did not pop ask how many more times they could have pushed the button.
There were no prizes for the winner. Still, those who heard they could have pushed their buttons several more times became visibly disappointed. The balloon task should not make any difference but knowing they could have acted more successfully left an emotional scar. Now, imagine, instead of a worthless balloon, we create mental scenarios that have some basis in reality. Soon, reality becomes depressing because the fictitious possibilities in our counterfactuals leave us dissatisfied with reality.
The more we focus on what could have been, the less we control what is in the here and now. Affirm the decisions you have made to this point. Rather than play the counterfactual game, prayerfully ask God to guide your present and your future. The longer you invite God in your decision-making, the less you feel the need to participate in a counterfactual activity. Living in a world of “what-if” offers an empty promise. The way to a meaningful life is living in the present, with God’s ongoing guidance.
